ELI5: Monty Hall Problem

Alright, kiddo! Let’s play a game — just like a game show! 🎉

There are 3 doors in front of you: 🚪🚪🚪
Behind one door is a big prize like a new bike! 🚲
Behind the other two doors? Just silly goats. 🐐🐐

Here’s how the game works:

1. You pick one door. Let’s say… Door 1.
2. The game host (Mr. Monty Hall) knows what’s behind all the doors. He opens a different door — let’s say Door 3 — and shows you a goat. 🐐
3. Now Monty says: “Do you want to stay with Door 1 or switch to Door 2?”

What should you do?

It feels like it’s a 50/50 chance, right? But guess what — it’s actually better to switch! 🤯

Here’s why:

• When you first pick, there’s a 1 out of 3 chance you got the prize.
• That means there’s a 2 out of 3 chance the prize is behind one of the other two doors.
• Monty shows you a goat, so now the 2 out of 3 chance is hiding behind the only other door left — Door 2!

So by switching, you double your chances of winning! 🎉

It’s a little tricky, like a magic trick for your brain — but now you know the secret!
Would you switch or stay? 😊